SpaceX is preparing to replace Falcon 9, the rocket behind nearly half of all launches worldwide in 2025. According to TechSpot, the company has stopped accepting Falcon 9 bookings for missions after 2028 and plans to move those customers to Starship.
Starship is a large rocket SpaceX is building for mass satellite deployment, deep-space missions and NASA’s lunar program. The company expects it to eventually replace Falcon 9 and take on jobs the current rocket can’t handle. It is designed to carry much heavier payloads and fly to the Moon and beyond. But Starship has yet to reach orbit. Testing of its newest prototype began this year, and the first orbital attempt is set for September 28.
For now, Falcon 9 handles most commercial launches. In 2025, it flew 165 times and delivered every payload to orbit, with only one failed first-stage landing. Reusable first stages and a rapid launch cadence have reshaped the economics of spaceflight. Falcon 9 also made rideshare missions common, letting several companies put their spacecraft on a single rocket. That matters most to startups and small operators that can’t afford a dedicated launch.
If SpaceX stops offering Falcon 9 after 2028, those customers will need other rockets. Rival launch providers could pick up some of the demand, but none of them flies nearly as often yet. The industry is already worried about a shortage of rockets and launch capacity as demand for satellite constellations grows. SpaceX is also launching fewer competitors’ satellites as it keeps more rockets for its own Starlink network.
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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has previously said the company will shift engineering and manufacturing resources from the Falcon program to Starship. He said that will happen once the new rocket is reliably flying several times a week. Down the line, SpaceX wants to reach several launches a day, which would let it gradually retire Falcon 9.
Retiring Falcon 9 could create problems for NASA. The rocket currently flies cargo and astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) under contract with the agency. Starship can’t do that job, since its upper stage is too large to dock with the station. The gap would be felt most if the ISS keeps operating beyond 2028, which is quite possible. NASA might then have to lean more on Russia’s Soyuz and on Boeing’s Starliner, if it gets fixed. Neither, however, is likely to fully replace Falcon 9.
The 2028 cutoff is likely tied to NASA’s Artemis lunar program. That year, the agency plans a mission in which astronauts launch aboard the Orion spacecraft on the super-heavy SLS (Space Launch System) rocket. Starship must then refuel in orbit, which will take 15 launches. After that, it is supposed to fly to lunar orbit and land two astronauts on the surface. To meet these commitments, SpaceX has to have Starship ready by then. Meanwhile, NASA has reopened the competition for its lunar lander, where Blue Origin is the only alternative to SpaceX.
SpaceX could still change course and keep Falcon 9 flying longer than planned. But its current booking policy suggests the company expects Starship to be ready to take over all of these jobs within two years.
